Thursday, September 07, 2006

New Polls

There are new congressional race polls out. Recordings instead of personal interviews were used so there is some controvery over the results. However, the polls do show Democrat Chris Carney ahead of incumbent Republican Don Sherwood and Democrat Lois Murphy ahead of incumbent Republican Jim Gerlach. (Read article from the Morning call, "Poll shows Sherwood, Gerlach trailing challengers in their races"
by Josh Drobnyk here.)

In the 8th district incumbent Republican Mike Fitzpatrick is ahead of Democrat Patrick Murphy 53-45, with a 3.1 margin of error. This puts them roughly where they were a month or so ago in a previous poll. The full report is available here. In much of the county the race is a tie. One other interesting note, while 51% of the district is Republican, Fitzpatrick has only a 41% "strong support" base and Bush has an approval rating of 36%.


eRobin said...

I don't like the look of the party distribution in the Fitpatrick/Murphy poll. I could be wrong, but I think it overestimates the number of GOP voters in Bucks. I think the race is closer than that poll indicates.

Anonymous said...

erobin's intuition is right. After adjusting for the poll's partisan imbalance, Patrick is only down 50-48.

Anonymous said...

Go over to MyDD and read the report of one Penn student who went canvassing for Murphy. It paints a scary picture
of your average voter.

Anonymous said...

Link to MyDD Murphy canvassing report:

AboveAvgJane said...


I don't think it presents a scary picture of your average voter; I think it presents a clear picture of why people don't talk to strangers at their door. If I had any indication that someone coming to my house uninvited was going to post a photo of it on the internet or describe me in unflattering terms and then blast it all over creation I would tell them I was busy or turn up the music or get nervous and say something crazy stupid, too. Whatever someone may think of these people they are hopefully going to be the candidate's constituents. How likely are they going to be to contact his office for help after they've seen a posting like that, sent to a number of national blogs? The more blogs I read the less willing I am to talk to people.