New Poll in 6th Congressional District

This also from the inbox. I apologize for the appearance of the tables. The grids didn't transfer well so I created them using slashes.

Overview

Despite the fact that Bob Roggio is a virtual unknown, Gerlach is unable to get over 50% on the initial ballot against Roggio, leading 49% to 32%. Gerlach’s net-negative job approval rating, and voter strong desire for change in Washington forecast change in the Sixth District. Sure enough, after voters are introduced to Bob Roggio through a simple biographical paragraph, Gerlach’s lead vanishes and Bob Roggio assumes a 7% lead over Gerlach – a 24% ballot swing just from voters learning who Roggio is.


PA6 Voters Dissatisfied With Direction of Country, Leadership in Washington

Voters in Pennsylvania’s Sixth Congressional District are very unhappy with the direction of the country: 79% said the country is on the wrong track, compared to just 12% who said it is on the right track.

In addition, Bush’s job approval is remarkably low – 84% said Bush was doing a just fair or poor job. And not only are these voters unhappy with the leadership at the top in Washington, they are also unhappy with their Representative in Washington, Jim Gerlach – just 39% approve of the job he is doing as Congressman - ominous in a highly-charged, change-oriented environment such as the Sixth District:

Q 15-16 How would you rate the job being done by…


Q15-16 George W. Bush / Jim Gerlach
Difference -68% / -8%
Excellent/Good 16% / 39%
Fair/ Poor 84% / 47%
Don't know 0% / 14%


Gerlach Leads Against Unknown Roggio, But After Voters Learn About Roggio, He Leads Gerlach By 7%

While 82% of voters know who Gerlach is, Roggio is almost unknown to voters – his name ID is 10%. Yet despite Roggio’s status as a virtually unknown candidate, Gerlach is unable to get over 50% on the initial ballot against him – he leads Roggio 49% to 32%:

If the November election for Congress was held today and the candidates were … for whom would you vote?

Q19 / Total
Difference / -17%
Bob Roggio, the Democrat / 32%
Jim Gerlach, the Republican / 49%
Don't know / 20%

However, once Sixth District voters hear a simple biography of Roggio, Gerlach’s lead is erased and Roggio takes a 7% lead over the incumbent Gerlach:

Bob Roggio and his wife Jeannie have lived in Chester County for almost 40 years, where they raised three children, all of whom attended public schools. Roggio is not a typical politician. He's a local businessman who quit college after his father died to take care of his mother and work in the family business. He rose through the company's ranks to run it, creating 400 new jobs and tripling the company's income during the 10 years he was in charge. After working almost his entire adult life, at age 56, Roggio retired and then went back to college to earn his degree from Penn State in just two years. Roggio has done volunteer work around Charlestown for Little League and the Red Cross, as well as hurricane relief work in Florida.

If the November election for Congress was held today and the candidates were … for whom would you vote?

Q36 / Total
Difference / +7%
Bob Roggio, the Democrat / 45%
Jim Gerlach, the Republican / 38%
Don't know / 17%


The Benenson Strategy Group conducted 500 interviews District-wide with likely 2008 general election voters June 21 –24, 2008. The margin of error for overall results is ±4.37%.

The Benenson Strategy Group’s clients include Governor Tim Kaine (VA), Senator Jim Webb (VA), and Senator Robert Menendez (NJ). Peter Brodnitz, who conducted this survey, was named “Pollster of the Year” by the American Association of Political Consultants in 2007 for his work for Kaine, Webb and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. It is a bi-partisan award given to one pollster every two years.