Hoeffel Leads Poll for Lt. Gov.

According to polling data Joe Hoeffel is the frontrunner in the Democratic primary for Lieutenant Governor. The breakdown is as follows:

Hoeffel / 19%
Hafer / 18%
Baker Knoll / 17%
McDonald Roberts / 4%
wolf / 4%
Undecided / 38%

Hoeffel's support is strongest in the Philadelphia area, as might be expected. There he has 39% of the vote. The next closest contenders are Baker Knoll and Hafer, who each get 9%.

Statewide, Hoeffel's name identification is only 38%, compared with 67% for Baker Knoll and 70% for Hafer. The memo notes that Hoeffel is largely unknown in the central and western parts of the state, but also that "he is well positioned to grow among progressive voters in these areas."

In my opinion the high percentage of undecided voters means there is real opportunity for a candidate willing to get out there and work. Personally, I can't see Baker Knoll, the current lt. gov., doing that. Hoeffel will have made the needed connections during his senatorial campaign two years ago. He should be able to easily reactivate a network of supporters. It is amazing that Baker Knoll polled so low, coming in third. While a Rendell/Hoeffel team might seem too Philly-centric for some parts of the state, it could negate any regional voter pull Jim Matthews might have if he is the GOP lt. gov. candidate.

Hoeffel will have some work cut out for him if he wants to improve his name recognition statewide but he has never been a slacker in the campaign department.

The memo says the poll was of 600 likely Pennsylvania Democratic voters on January 5, 8, and 9. I wasn't one of those polled. The margin of error is plus or minus 4%, and with the top three names so close together any error could play havoc with the listing, but it would still be a tight race.

The memo itself is available here (via politicspa)

(For more Hoeffel postings see the Hoeffel link on the right-hand sidebar.)