Cafe Press Election Prediction

from the inbox:

With last night’s Iowa caucuses, Mitt Romney has solidified his position as the most likely Republican candidate to oppose Barack Obama for the presidency. However, can Romney actually beat Obama come the election this November?

According to the CafePress Election Meter, it doesn’t seem very likely.

As you may know, CafePress is an e-commerce platform that powers user-designed merchandise. With an average of over 137,000 new designs uploaded every week, it’s no surprise many of them are political in nature. As a result, CafePress is often seen as a cultural barometer, making their political product sales relevant and interesting. The CafePress Election Meter tracks merchandise sales trends for each presidential candidate and, through such trends, successfully predicted Barack Obama’s victory over John McCain in 2008.

With this in mind, if we pit 2011 sales data for Romney-tagged items against Obama-tagged items, we see that Obama-tagged items lead the Election Meter with 68% of candidate sales to 32% for Romney. Obama is simply seeing more support, as the GOP doesn’t appear too excited about the former MA Governor.

Romney, however, isn’t the only Republican hopeful falling victim to Obama. All of the other nominees’ sales pale in comparison except for one—Ron Paul.

In 2011, Paul-tagged items led Obama in political sales, 75% to 25%. While Paul found himself in 3^rd place last night, according to the CafePress Election Meter, he’s the only Republican with enough support to ultimately beat Obama.

Meanwhile, sales of Michelle Bachmann-tagged items have plummeted over recent months, falling from 7% of all candidate sales in July to just 2% in December, which captures just how much her support has faded and explains her poor showing in Iowa (and her subsequent decision today to bow out of the race).

Republicans in Iowa might have spoken yesterday, but can Romney win the White House in 2012? The CafePress Election Meter doesn’t think it’s likely.