Thursday, August 10, 2006

Sabato List PA Seats As Probable / Possible Demoratic Pickups

Larry Sabato (and David Wasserman), noted Virginia-based political analysts, have given their list of probable / possible party changes in Senate, House, and Governorships in the 2006 elections. I found reference to it at mydd, which linked to Taegan Goddard, which linked to Sabato's orginal post.

Pennsylvania races listed are:

Senate probable Democratic pick-up (that would be Bob Casey, running against incumbent Republican Rick Santorum).

House probably Democratic pick-up: PA-06 (that would be Lois Murphy, running against incumbent Republican Jim Gerlach).

House possible Democratic pick-up: PA-08 (that would be Patrick Murphy, running against incumbent Republican Mike Fitzpatrick) and PA-10 (that would be Chris Carney, running against incumbent Republican Don Sherwood).


phillydem said...

Sabato is himself pretty conservative.
I consider this forecast to also be a very conservative (not politically) estimate of what seems likely to happen. IOW, I take Sabato's predicitions as the floor of what the Dems will acheive in November.

Daddy Democrat said...

I tend to agree with this. There are almost three months until the election, so a lot can happen. But all signs point to an election on the verge of going national. The latest generic ballots are consistently showing an 18-pt lead for the Dems. That's above the 1994 levels that favored the GOP.

The campaigns will hold off on major advertising until after Labor Day. That's when a significant portion of the electorate is going to wake up and realize they have a viable alternative in their districts. Challengers still lag behind in name recognition by a significant amount. But that will change.