Wednesday, October 12, 2011

New Obama Poll

Daily Kos and SEIU's newest weekly polling numbers show a surprising bounce for Barack Obama. The president's job approval jumped six points (from 42-54 to 44-50) and his favorability almost twice that (44-52 to 50-47). But it's a head-scratcher: With little in the way of major news over the last week, there really is nothing that can account for this spike.

What's more, no other pollsters have confirmed similar movement, especially movement so large. While the next few weeks bear watching to see if Obama is in the midst of an unexpected recovery, this poll is likely a good lesson in why it's important to always be mindful of potential outliers. Polling can be an inexact science, and sometimes, poll numbers are simply too good, too bad, or just too plain unlikely to be true.

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