Wednesday, September 08, 2010

Generic Ballot Shift

from Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post:

One week ago, Gallup released a weekly tracking poll that showed Republicans with a 10 point edge on the so-called generic ballot question -- "If the election for Congress were being held today, which parties' candidate would you vote for in your congressional district?" -- a finding that set off a rash of media coverage that the Democrats' hold on their House majority was rapidly slipping away.

(We dedicated the lead item of our "Morning Fix" column to the Gallup generic findings -- and what they meant -- while Post pollster Jon Cohen offered his take in a story for the paper.)

On Tuesday, Gallup released its latest numbers, which showed Democrats and Republicans tied at 46 percent on the generic ballot -- a stunning reversal that had Democratic operatives crowing that the media had jumped the gun on writing their party's political obituary.

See the full column for his theories on the shift.

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